Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI, recently cited a forecast by Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market. According to Acemoglu, only about 5% of human jobs are expected to be replaced by AI within the next decade.
Acemoglu, who received the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics alongside Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson, published this estimate in the inaugural issue of The Humanist Review in July. While he suggests that 20% of tasks could technically be automated, the actual adoption rate by businesses will likely limit the displacement to 5%.
The economist notes a discrepancy between AI performance in laboratory settings and real-world deployment. Issues such as the need for extensive debugging of AI-generated code and difficulties in integrating AI tools with professional medical expertise hinder widespread implementation.
Suleyman previously addressed the topic of automation in February, suggesting that many tasks performed by white-collar professionals like lawyers and accountants could be automated within 12 to 18 months. He later clarified in June that his comments referred to specific tasks rather than the complete elimination of job roles.
