Researchers from Vanderbilt University identified suspicious betting activity on the prediction platform Polymarket. A user placed a wager of nearly $200 000 on October 31 regarding the re-election of Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts. An hour after the bet, a New York Times and Siena College poll was published, indicating that Ricketts was leading in the race.
According to a New York Times report, the user secured winnings exceeding $77 000. The same individual reportedly executed similar large-scale bets on other platforms, including Kalshi. Brett Goldstein from the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security noted that the pattern of these events is difficult to attribute to chance and warrants a formal investigation.
Polymarket confirmed that it has identified the trades and is currently conducting an internal review, while Kalshi has declined to provide comments on the matter. This situation follows previous regulatory scrutiny regarding the use of non-public information in prediction markets, including a case involving a US Army soldier charged with earning over $400 000.
In the prior case, the Department of Justice alleged that Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke utilized classified details about Operation Absolute Resolve to profit from Polymarket contracts. The operation involved the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January, and the soldier allegedly bet on outcomes related to the political situation in Venezuela.
