XRP entered October 2026 following a 48% gain in the third quarter, marking its strongest Q3 performance in four years. Despite this, the asset remains 59% below its all-time high of $3.65 recorded in July 2025. Current market data suggests a range-bound trend for the month, as institutional interest faces historical seasonal weakness.
Institutional demand is supported by US spot XRP ETFs, which hold approximately 1.16 billion tokens valued at roughly $1.76 billion. Cumulative net inflows have reached nearly $1.68 billion. Simultaneously, on-chain data from Glassnode indicates that exchange balances dropped from 12.9 billion to 11 billion tokens since April, with 1.6 billion XRP withdrawn in the last two weeks.
Several factors influence the price outlook for October. Ripple is scheduled to host its Swell conference in New York from October 27 to 29, while the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27–28 carries a 64% probability of a rate hike. Additionally, Ripple may release up to 1 billion XRP from escrow on October 1, and the CLARITY Act was recently rejected by the Senate in a 49 to 50 vote.
Technical analysis shows XRP holding support between $1.47 and $1.50. The asset faces resistance at the 0.618 Fibonacci level of $1.70, a point that rejected price attempts in August and September. On the four-hour chart, a symmetrical triangle pattern suggests potential targets of $1.83 in the event of a breakout or $1.17 if the price breaks down.
