The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly revised its global trade outlook. Merchandise trade volumes are now expected to grow by 3.9% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027. This marks a substantial increase from the 1.9% growth forecast issued by the organization in March 2026.
The primary driver of this growth is the demand for AI-related hardware, including semiconductors and server equipment for data centers. These goods accounted for nearly 47% of global merchandise trade growth, with volumes increasing by 67% year-on-year. Infrastructure spending for AI is projected to rise by at least 30% in 2026.
Despite the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which has disrupted shipping routes, goods trade has shown resilience. However, the outlook for services trade has been downgraded, with the 2026 growth forecast cut from 4.8% to 3.3%.
Regional disparities remain, with Asia expected to lead merchandise trade expansion, while the Middle East faces a decline in exports. Global GDP is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027, trailing behind the growth rates of merchandise trade.
