On-chain analyst Willy Woo has released a Monte Carlo simulation mapping 10,000 potential future price paths for Bitcoin. The model, which accounts for power-law degradation of returns, suggests a median path reaching $1.03 million by February 2033. The simulation relies on market data from the 2018 bottom through the 2022 bottom, excluding earlier periods of higher volatility.
According to the median path, Bitcoin is expected to hit a cycle peak of $413,000 in December 2028, followed by a decline to $234,000 by April 2030. The model also highlights a 29th percentile path, which peaks at $241,000 in December 2028 and bottoms at $126,000 in April 2030. These projections assume that market structure remains consistent with the 2018–2022 period.
The simulation incorporates factors such as derivatives, exchange-traded funds, and rapid liquidations to reflect current market dynamics. A power-law decay setting of 0.45 is applied to account for diminishing returns across cycles. Woo emphasizes that these figures are not price predictions but rather statistical outcomes based on historical trends and specific model assumptions.
Extreme scenarios within the simulation show significant variance. The 90th percentile path reaches $1.44 million by March 2029, while the 10th percentile path drops to $51,900 by April 2030. All highlighted paths indicate cycle highs occurring between December 2028 and March 2029, aligning with a separate 500-day halving rule that suggests a sell window in 2029.
