Analysts at William Blair maintained Outperform ratings for Coinbase and Circle in a research note dated July 15. The firm believes the current market valuation already reflects the challenges facing these companies, despite significant downward revisions to their financial outlooks.
William Blair lowered its revenue forecasts for Coinbase by 12% for 2026 and by 13% for 2027. Projections for adjusted EBITDA were reduced by 34% for both years. These adjustments follow a decline in spot trading volumes, which the firm expects to drop by approximately 44% in 2026 to $669 billion, followed by a 32% recovery in 2027.
Coinbase shares are currently trading 60% below their July 2025 peak and 26% below their March 2026 highs. Analysts anticipate that Coinbase will reach its lowest EBITDA point in the second half of 2026, with future growth supported by derivatives trading, prediction markets, and USDC-related activities.
Circle continues to expand its presence, with the market share of its USDC stablecoin reaching approximately 27% as of April 2026, compared to 21% in 2024. The partnership between Coinbase and Circle regarding USDC reserves remains a key factor, as Coinbase earns interest income from the holdings managed by Circle.
