JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon highlights a significant shift in small-business ownership. A Chase survey of 1,000 owners reveals that 70% lack formal succession plans, while only 8% are fully prepared for a transition. Over the next 10 to 15 years, approximately 12 million US businesses, holding nearly $10 trillion in assets, are expected to change hands.
More than half of the companies in key industries are currently led by owners aged 55 or older. Dimon warns that inadequate planning for these transitions could lead to business closures and job losses. The scale of this asset transfer presents a long-term structural risk for the US economy that remains largely unaddressed by current market participants.
Separately, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi warns that the Federal Reserve faces a high risk of policy errors. Following a 25-basis-point rate hike, the target range reached 3.75%–4.00%. Zandi argues that current inflation, which remains above 3%, is driven by energy costs and tariffs that interest rate adjustments cannot effectively resolve.
Zandi suggests that the Fed might inadvertently damage the economy by attempting to curb inflation through higher rates, potentially cooling the AI sector or suppressing weaker industries. With real GDP growth currently near 2%, investors heavily exposed to AI stocks and US growth may face increased volatility if higher borrowing costs expose underlying economic weaknesses.
