Long-term US government bonds have recorded their worst decade in 223 years, with annual losses of approximately 2% through August 2026. Data from Santa Clara University indicates that negative 10-year returns have occurred in 25 months since 1793, with 24 of those instances happening during the current period.
As of July 2026, the rolling 10-year annualized return for US bonds after inflation reached -5.14%. This performance is noted as being worse than the periods following the Civil War, the Great Depression, and the inflationary 1970s. Current yields for 10-year and 30-year Treasuries stand at 4.80% and 5.25% respectively.
Federal debt reached $40,1 trillion on September 3, 2026. Despite the rising bond yields, US spot Bitcoin funds attracted $987,7 million in inflows during the week ending September 4. Bitcoin is currently trading near $77 934, while market participants on Polymarket estimate a 52% probability of a rate hike in September.
