A Bloomberg Originals documentary and Nomura analysis indicate that the surge in AI investment since 2022 is redirecting global capital toward a small group of US technology firms. This concentration is drawing funds away from US sovereign debt, developing nations, and traditional industrial sectors.
Data shows that cross-border holdings linked to the US have quadrupled since 2008, currently accounting for approximately 80% of foreign holdings held by net creditor nations. Nomura analysts warn that this trend masks rising risk premiums for US assets, potentially leading to equity corrections and a weaker dollar if AI market conditions shift.
The US net primary income has entered a deficit, with net interest payments on debt now exceeding defense spending in certain metrics. Analysts project that cumulative capital expenditure on AI could reach over $10 trillion between 2025 and 2032, with funding increasingly reliant on corporate bonds and private credit.
The shift in capital flows is creating significant challenges for emerging economies that depend on foreign investment for infrastructure and debt refinancing. Experts note that if the AI investment cycle reverses, the resulting global retreat from risk could exacerbate US fiscal and current-account deficits.
