The probability of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passing in 2026 has increased to approximately 30% on Polymarket. This shift follows the release of a revised 630-page Senate bill on September 10, which incorporates over 114 provisions requested by Democrats.
The updated legislation requires non-decentralized trading protocols to register with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Additionally, the bill narrows its focus regarding decentralized finance (DeFi) to specifically address spot and cash transactions.
A cloture vote is set for September 15 at 2:15 p.m. ET. To proceed, the bill must secure 60 votes. As Republicans hold 53 seats, the legislation requires support from at least seven Democratic senators.
The House of Representatives previously passed its version of the bill, H.R. 3633, on July 17, 2025, with a 294-134 vote. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the current proposal on May 14, 2026, by a 15-9 margin.
If the bill fails to reach the 60-vote threshold, further legislative attempts may be delayed until 2027. The proposed shift in oversight to the CFTC would alter the regulatory balance between the commission and the SEC.
