According to TrendForce, the supply of processors improved in the third quarter of 2026, allowing manufacturers to normalize production. Despite this, rising component costs continue to pressure the laptop market, with global shipments for 2026 expected to decline by 9.4% year-over-year.
The distribution of shipments in 2026 is projected at a 53:47 ratio between the first and second halves of the year. Analysts note that shipment volumes are expected to begin decreasing starting in the third quarter.
TrendForce analyzed a mass-market laptop model priced at $900 in early 2025. At that time, key components like processors, DRAM, and SSDs accounted for 45% of the system's cost. By the third quarter of 2026, this share surged to 68%.
To maintain previous profit margins, manufacturers would need to increase the retail price of such a laptop by approximately 80% compared to the first quarter of 2025. This adjustment reflects the ongoing impact of component inflation on final consumer prices.
Brands are currently utilizing previously purchased, lower-cost component inventories to mitigate price hikes and maintain market share. However, as these reserves deplete, companies will face the choice of raising retail prices or sacrificing profit margins.