The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released a paper on September 1, 2026, analyzing the impact of AI stock volatility on the domestic economy. The study estimates that Australian households hold 5.4–5.5% of their financial wealth in AI-related equities. Of this exposure, 1.7 percentage points are held directly, while 3.7 percentage points are managed through compulsory superannuation funds.
Approximately 90% of this AI-related exposure is invested in foreign markets, primarily in US stocks. The RBA modeled a scenario involving a permanent 20% decline in AI share prices, projecting a long-term reduction in household consumption of 0.7%. If the market downturn extends to broader equities, the bank estimates the potential impact on consumption could reach 2.4%.
In its October 2026 Financial Stability Review, the RBA identified risks associated with debt-funded infrastructure, such as data centers. The report highlighted concerns regarding inflated valuations, high earnings expectations, and circular financing practices within the sector. Governor Michele Bullock noted potential inflationary pressures and warned of a possible AI bubble that could burst unexpectedly.
