QCP Capital predicts that Bitcoin will trade within a range of $80,000 to $90,000 during the fourth quarter of 2026. The firm, based in Singapore, published this forecast in its Digital Assets Market Outlook on October 5, 2026, noting that the market is currently in a stalemate between macroeconomic pressures and interest from exchange-traded funds.
Recent price fluctuations between $82,000 and $86,000 are attributed primarily to short covering rather than new spot buying. The firm highlights that the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, 2026, which has contributed to market caution alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The supply of stablecoins is currently around $308 billion, a decline from the peak of $322 billion recorded in May 2026. Analysts suggest that a return to those previous levels, combined with robust ETF inflows and a softening of real yields, is necessary for Bitcoin to consistently trade above $100,000.
QCP Capital advises investors to maintain core Bitcoin holdings while prioritizing defined-risk strategies over leverage. The firm identifies a critical downside level at $70,000; a drop below this mark would signal a departure from the current range-bound scenario and indicate a shift toward a more bearish market outlook.
