Prediction markets recorded a volume of $188 billion between July and September 2026. This figure represents a 70% increase compared to the previous quarter and is 21 times higher than the volume in the third quarter of 2025. Data from CryptoRank indicates that the total volume reflects the full payout value of contracts rather than the actual purchase price.
Kalshi emerged as the primary driver of this growth, accounting for the majority of the trading volume. In the last quarter, buyers on the platform paid approximately $41 billion to acquire contracts with a total notional value of $142 billion. Sports-related trading significantly contributed to this activity, reaching $58 billion on Kalshi during June and July alone.
The legal status of these platforms remains contested. While the Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversees Kalshi, federal courts in Ohio and Tennessee have classified its sports contracts as gambling, allowing states to restrict their sale. Conversely, a separate appeals court in New Jersey previously ruled in favor of the exchange. Meanwhile, Polymarket faces legal challenges in New York.
Research by Galaxy indicates that the majority of individual users on prediction platforms incur losses. Analysis of 2.9 million retail accounts showed that 69.2% finished below break-even, with cumulative losses totaling $338.9 million since 2020. Across all platforms, sports contracts accounted for 68% of total buyer spending over the past month.
