Polymarket users currently estimate an 83% probability that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16. This figure marks a significant rise from the 50–60% range recorded just one week prior, following the release of August core CPI data, which reached 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast.
Combined trading volume on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi regarding the September rate decision has surpassed $190 million. This volume represents one of the largest books ever hosted on Polymarket. Current federal funds rates are set at 3.50–3.75%, with expectations pointing toward a shift to 3.75–4.00%.
Market data from various sources shows a high level of consensus. While Polymarket estimates sit at 83%, CME FedWatch futures indicate a slightly higher probability of 85–86%. The aggregate probability across all monitored platforms is approximately 81.3%.
The upcoming FOMC meeting is particularly significant as it includes the release of the Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by Chair Jerome Powell. Analysts note that a rate hike to 3.75–4.00% would likely tighten liquidity and impact non-yielding assets.
