PitchBook analysts have valued the prediction market platform Kalshi at $30.4 billion in their base-case scenario, accounting for ongoing legal risks. The valuation ranges from $22.8 billion in a pessimistic outlook to $42.1 billion in an optimistic one. Projections suggest the platform's revenue could reach $6.4 billion by 2030, with adjusted profits estimated at $3.7 billion.
The company's valuation faces uncertainty due to legal disputes over sports-related contracts, which accounted for 69.9% of commissions this year. Including 'Exotics' products, this share rises to 82.4%. Courts in different US circuits have issued conflicting rulings regarding whether these contracts fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or require state-level gambling licenses.
The legal conflict has reached the US Supreme Court, with New Jersey seeking a review of a Third Circuit decision that favored Kalshi. While analysts do not view a negative legal outcome as an existential threat, they estimate it could reduce 2030 revenue by $1.4 billion. Kalshi is attempting to diversify into perpetual futures and crypto-related contracts, the latter of which grew from under 5% in January to 20% in August.
Kalshi remains a private entity. In May, the company raised $1 billion in a Series F funding round led by Coatue, with participation from Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest, at a valuation of $22 billion. Additionally, the platform secured $1.12 billion through a private placement of shares in August.
