A working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, titled WP 26-42, analyzes the impact of large cryptocurrency transfers on market behavior. The study covers data from December 2017 through December 31, 2025, examining over 6,600 Bitcoin transactions and 5,000 Ethereum transactions.
Researchers defined whales as individual wallets transferring more than $50 million, excluding exchanges and smart contracts. The data was cross-referenced with public notifications from the Whale Alert service to track how non-whale wallets react to these large movements.
Bitcoin traders showed a significant response to whale alerts. Within 15 minutes of a buy signal, small and medium wallet participation increased by 14.81 to 23.72 percentage points. Sell participation rose by 12.95 to 29.52 percentage points following sell alerts.
Small wallet activity jumped from 18.6% to 33.2% after alerts, while medium wallet activity rose from 33.8% to 57.9%. Bitcoin also experienced a brief 24-hour volatility spike, particularly after Wrapped Bitcoin alerts, though the effect typically returned to baseline within an hour.
In contrast, Ethereum traders showed minimal reaction, with the largest non-whale sellers shifting participation by only 0.76 percentage points. Researchers suggest that Bitcoin's simpler transaction structure makes it easier for market participants to interpret signals compared to Ethereum.
