TrendForce reports that PC DRAM contract prices are set to increase by 13% to 18% in the fourth quarter of 2026. This growth rate is lower than the 18% to 23% increase observed in the third quarter of 2026. The rise is driven by supply constraints, as manufacturers prioritize advanced DRAM nodes for server and high-bandwidth memory production.
Consumer demand remains weak, with notebook shipments projected to fall by 14% to 15.8% in the third quarter of 2026, with further declines anticipated in the fourth quarter. OEM inventory levels for DRAM have risen from a range of six to nine weeks at the end of the third quarter to seven to ten weeks by early the fourth quarter of 2026.
Due to rising costs, OEMs are reconsidering their procurement strategies for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. Some manufacturers are exploring the use of downgraded components to improve cost efficiency. Meanwhile, conventional DRAM prices are expected to rise 10% to 15%, while NAND Flash prices are projected to climb 15% to 20% in the fourth quarter.
Looking ahead to 2027, major suppliers, particularly those in Korea, intend to reduce PC DRAM production by more than 20% year-over-year. This strategic shift aims to further prioritize server DRAM capacity over consumer-grade hardware.
