Brent crude oil is currently trading near $98 per barrel. This follows a weekly decline of over 12.5 percent, which was driven by market optimism regarding a potential de-escalation of regional tensions.
Amos Hochstein, a former energy adviser to the Biden administration and current managing partner at TWG Global, estimates the probability of a renewed conflict between the US and Iran at over 50 percent. He suggests that military strikes on Iran remain a primary policy consideration.
Reports indicate that US forces conducted strikes on Qeshm Island one day prior to the midterm elections. Meanwhile, Iran reported that three additional tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, with UK Maritime Trade Operations data showing that attacks on oil vessels remain near record levels.
The current price of $98 remains below the four-year high of over $120. Goldman Sachs had previously set a target of $105 for December, citing risks to supply chains. Market analysts note that oil prices remain sensitive to both diplomatic developments and reports of maritime escalation.
