Global oil benchmarks have seen a sharp rise in prices following recent military strikes between the U.S. and Iran. Brent crude is currently trading at $101.21 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate has reached $96.05. These figures represent the highest price levels recorded since late May.
The surge is linked to logistical challenges in the Strait of Hormuz, where tanker attacks and regional military activity have restricted oil transportation. Market participants are now pricing in the potential for further volatility, with the probability of crude oil hitting a new all-time high by December 31 currently estimated at 13.5%.
Expectations for the short term remain cautious, as the probability of reaching a new peak by September 30 stands at 3.4%, up from 2% the previous week. Future market trajectories will depend on production decisions from OPEC, forecasts from the International Energy Agency, and ongoing geopolitical stability in the Middle East.
