The Netherlands has revised its 2040 hydrogen demand forecast in the 2026 National Energy System Plan, reducing the estimate from 460 petajoules to 200 petajoules. This 57% cut reflects a shift in strategy, as the country moves away from using hydrogen for electricity generation, building heating, and most industrial heat applications.
The updated plan prioritizes direct electrification, aiming for electricity to supply 52% of final energy by 2040, compared to approximately 25% today. Projections indicate that 71% to 88% of road transport and 64% of households will rely on electric or hybrid heat pump systems. Synthetic fuel production is also expected to shift toward imports from regions with lower renewable energy costs.
Despite the significant downward revision, the new forecast still implies a 54% growth in hydrogen demand from the current level of 130 petajoules. The government now estimates 2040 hydrogen costs at €6.70 to €6.80 per kilogram, citing recent European Hydrogen Bank auction bids that averaged €9.80 per kilogram, which makes hydrogen less competitive against direct electrification.
The report identifies 200 petajoules as the base case for 2040, with an upside scenario of 300 petajoules. Analysts suggest that given the removal of major hydrogen applications from the forecast, the potential for declining demand should be modeled more explicitly to better inform infrastructure investment decisions.
