Morgan Stanley projects that the monetizable revenue from consumer AI in China will reach ¥294 billion by 2030, up from an estimated ¥54 billion in 2026. Advertising and transaction commissions are expected to account for 99% of this revenue, with commissions alone contributing ¥281 billion.
The report highlights that 80% of Chinese respondents use AI for personal tasks weekly, compared to 54% in the US. Among working users in China, 77% apply AI to professional tasks, and 64% have used at least five different AI tools in the past month.
As of July 2026, the monthly active user base for major Chinese AI applications included 399 million for Doubao, 161 million for Qwen, 124 million for DeepSeek, and 51 million for Yuanbao. Analysts emphasize that the ability to convert AI queries into commercial actions is critical for business success.
Companies with existing traffic and payment infrastructure, such as Tencent and Alibaba, are positioned to benefit most. Integration of AI into platforms like WeChat and Taobao allows for direct links between user requests and transactions, which 57% of survey participants believe could increase their purchasing frequency.
Despite high usage, the share of users paying for AI services dropped from 41% to 35%. Only 21% of respondents prefer subscription models, with an average willingness to pay capped at ¥41 per month. Rising computational costs remain a significant challenge for the profitability of these AI models.
