Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas maintained a buy rating on SpaceX, setting a price target of $300 per share. This forecast represents an 89% increase from the closing price of $158.96 recorded on the previous Friday. The valuation model attributes $127 per share to rocket operations and Starlink, while assigning $32 per share to the company's artificial intelligence division, which includes the Grok chatbot and computing services.
Despite the optimistic outlook, demand remains limited among institutional investors. During a recent meeting, none of the 40 clients surveyed by Jonas held SpaceX stock. Investors have expressed concerns regarding the competitive viability of Grok and potential regulatory challenges for Starlink's mobile service spectrum. Additionally, the AI division reported a loss of $1.26 billion in the last quarter, accounting for 86% of the company's capital expenditures.
SpaceX shares have declined approximately 30% from their post-IPO high of $225.64. On September 24, the expiration of the post-IPO lockup period released 328 million shares for sale, and President Gwynne Shotwell sold $52.5 million worth of stock. While the average price target from 33 analysts stands at $235.10, some estimates are as low as $142 per share.
Future performance may depend on upcoming milestones, including the next Starship flight scheduled for late October or early November. Jonas noted that a successful recovery of the Starship vehicle could serve as a significant catalyst for the stock. Other potential drivers include the release of new Grok versions and additional computing contracts. Conversely, an AI market slowdown or further dilution could push the price toward $100.
