Traders on the Kalshi prediction market are betting that US retail diesel prices will drop to $6.20 per gallon or lower by November 3, 2026. This outlook follows an executive order signed by President Donald Trump on October 5, 2026, which temporarily allows the use of tax-exempt dyed diesel on highways.
The executive order defers federal excise taxes on dyed diesel for the remainder of the year. This policy aims to provide relief to the trucking and agriculture sectors, with potential savings estimated at over $100 per refill for vehicles with large fuel tanks.
The market sentiment follows a price surge in September, when US retail on-highway diesel reached approximately $6.53 per gallon due to international supply disruptions. Traders are also monitoring the possibility of a complete diesel export ban, with current market probabilities estimated between 11% and 17%.
