Prediction market platform Kalshi estimates a 93% probability that Anthropic will complete its initial public offering before OpenAI. This assessment follows a series of events throughout 2026, including the submission of S-1 registration statements to the SEC by both companies in June.
Anthropic filed its registration on June 1, 2026, and targets an October 2026 debut on the Nasdaq. OpenAI filed on June 8, 2026, but reports suggest its listing may be delayed until 2027 due to operational challenges and a complex transition from a nonprofit-controlled entity to a for-profit corporation.
Financial metrics highlight a gap between the two firms. Anthropic has a projected revenue run rate of $65 billion, while OpenAI is at approximately $40 billion. By July 2026, Anthropic reached a private valuation of roughly $1.11 trillion following secondary market activity.
Trading volume on Kalshi for IPO-related contracts has reached millions, with one specific series totaling $1.7 million. Anthropic benefits from its existing structure as a public benefit corporation, which simplifies the regulatory path to a public listing compared to the restructuring required by OpenAI.
