JPMorgan analysts report that global oil prices remain high due to a severe shortage of available supertankers. Despite sufficient crude supply, a shipping bottleneck is driving up transport costs, complicating the delivery of oil from Middle Eastern producers.
Data from September shows that 766 out of 923 global supertankers were in use. Additionally, 124 Iranian vessels are excluded from mainstream shipping due to US sanctions. These constraints, combined with longer transit routes and time-consuming ship-to-ship transfers, have increased the demand for vessels by 35 units compared to the 2025 average.
The impact on freight markets is significant. On October 7, a supertanker charter rate reached $1.162 million per day. By October 9, Brent crude was trading near $102.77, while US crude reached approximately $93.13. JPMorgan notes that rising shipping costs are squeezing European refining margins, which may lead to production cuts.
While G7 nations have agreed to release 100 million barrels from emergency reserves, analysts question the effectiveness of these measures given the lack of transport capacity. JPMorgan emphasizes that until shipping costs stabilize, additional crude supplies may provide little relief to the market.
