JPMorgan analysts informed clients on September 17, 2026, that they can no longer provide a baseline price forecast for crude oil. The bank cites the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which began in early March 2026, as the primary factor that has rendered their traditional forecasting models ineffective.
The conflict has caused significant disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil flows. Supply losses resulting from restrictions on tanker traffic are estimated at 10 million barrels per day. Despite these supply issues, global oil consumption has decreased by 4.4 million barrels per day compared to the previous year.
Since the start of the conflict, Brent crude has averaged around $94 per barrel, with mid-September spot prices ranging between $103 and $106. JPMorgan estimates the fair value of Brent at $90 per barrel, suggesting a geopolitical risk premium of approximately $16 per barrel.
Economic indicators show Brent crude exceeding $100 per barrel, while US gasoline prices are near $5 per gallon and diesel prices have surpassed $6 per gallon. Additionally, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen above 5%. Inventory levels have reached historic lows, creating a lack of buffer for potential future supply shocks.
