JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, identified $85,000 as a critical production cost threshold for Bitcoin miners. This level serves as a soft floor for the market, as Bitcoin spent 280 days trading below this estimated cost, exceeding the 224-day downturn observed in 2018.
Recent market data indicates that mining hashrate declined by approximately 19% from its October peak, while mining difficulty decreased by about 15%. In response, some miners retired older equipment, sought more affordable energy sources, or reallocated their computing capacity toward AI-related workloads.
Data from CryptoQuant reveals a decline in miner-to-exchange transfers. While flows reached nearly 24,000 BTC in February, subsequent spikes were lower, including 12,400 BTC in June, 13,500 BTC in August, and approximately 10,000 BTC in September. Despite this, miners continue to move assets to exchanges during price rallies to generate liquidity.
The recovery remains fragile according to Capriole’s Hash Ribbons. The 30-day average hashrate dropped from 1,105 EH/s in late 2025 to 895 EH/s in August, currently recovering to 947 EH/s. This figure is only slightly above the 60-day average of 943 EH/s, leaving a margin of less than 0.5%.
