The Israeli parliamentary election concluded on October 27 without a clear winner. Exit polls indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition and the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot both failed to secure the 61 seats required to form a government. The Likud party is projected to hold 24 seats, while the Yashar party is expected to take 22 seats. Nationwide voter turnout reached 77.7%.
Arab parties, including the Joint List and Ra’am, secured a projected 18 seats, an increase from 10 in the previous parliament. Despite their potential to influence the balance of power, Eisenkot has ruled out a formal coalition with these groups. This political impasse raises the possibility of extended negotiations or the necessity of holding another election.
Financial institutions are monitoring the situation due to its potential impact on global oil markets and risk assets. Brent crude closed at $113.88 on Tuesday. Goldman Sachs estimates that approximately $27 per barrel of the current price is attributed to geopolitical risk. UBS has adjusted its forecast for Brent to near $110 through the end of the year.
Analysts from Commerzbank, SEB, and MUFG highlight that the election outcome could influence the trajectory of the conflict with Iran. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handled about 25% of global seaborne oil trade in 2025, could affect energy costs and inflation. Such developments may exert pressure on equities and cryptocurrencies by complicating interest-rate policies.
