India, the world's second-largest gold consumer, is seeing a shift in purchasing behavior among its major jewelers during the peak October-to-December season. Large retailers are currently reducing their inventory in anticipation of further price declines, leaving smaller and mid-sized firms to drive the majority of current market activity.
Data from Trading Economics shows gold trading at $4,044.65 on Wednesday, marking a 3.26% decrease over the previous month. Citi Research projects that Indian gold imports for the fourth quarter will reach approximately 106 tons, which is roughly half of the typical volume, citing stricter import regulations and reduced rural demand.
The market landscape is further complicated by shifting investment patterns. While gold ETFs saw record inflows of $31 billion in the third quarter, investors recently withdrew nearly 17 tons over three trading days. Analysts at Saxo Bank identify $3,970 as a key support level, noting that a rise above $4,230 is necessary to trigger short covering.
Looking ahead, Amundi has adjusted its year-end outlook, no longer anticipating a price of $5,000, though it maintains a recovery target of $4,500. Market participants are also monitoring Federal Reserve policy, with analyst Benjamin Cowen suggesting that a potential rate hike in December could delay a market bottom until January 2027.
