HSBC has revised its 2026 Brent crude price forecast, increasing it from $80 to $90 per barrel. The bank attributes this adjustment to the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, which shows no signs of resolution.
Current oil transit through the strait has dropped to approximately 6 million barrels per day, which is 30% of pre-conflict levels. The collapse of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding in July 2026 further impacted market stability.
The bank expects transit volumes to reach 8 million barrels per day by the end of 2026 and 9.5 million barrels per day by mid-2027. Analysts believe oil markets will remain tight until the middle of 2027.
HSBC also raised its 2027 price outlook to $85 per barrel from $65. For 2028 and beyond, the bank projects a price of $75 per barrel. In a worst-case stalemate, prices could reach $120 per barrel.
