A study from the Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability at Harvard University projects that electric vehicles will account for 32 percent of new car sales in the United States by 2030. Researchers note that this figure would have reached 48 percent without recent federal policy changes, including the revocation of tax credits.
The removal of the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicle purchases reduced the projected 2030 market share by 6.2 percentage points. Other regulatory shifts include the elimination of tailpipe emission restrictions and the removal of California's authority to enforce stricter emission standards than federal requirements.
The report identifies charging infrastructure as the primary barrier to adoption. Researchers suggest that improving the availability of real-time charger status and pricing data in mobile applications could increase adoption by 6 percent, helping to mitigate consumer range anxiety as battery technology matures.
Major automakers are adjusting their strategies amid these policy shifts. Volkswagen has delayed its battery factory in St. Thomas, Ontario, by two years, while General Motors CEO Mary Barra maintains an internal forecast of 40 to 50 percent for electric vehicle sales by 2030, despite current market headwinds.
