Most stock markets in the Gulf region closed lower due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Indices in Saudi Arabia, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi recorded declines, while the Qatar QSE index showed a slight increase. Analysts link this volatility to ongoing regional security concerns, including Houthi attacks and the state of US-Iran relations.
Prediction markets reflect these tensions, particularly regarding oil prices. The probability of crude oil hitting a new all-time high by September 30 is estimated at 0.5%. For the end of the year, specifically by December 31, the likelihood of such a price surge is currently at 12.5%, indicating market participants are monitoring potential developments through the end of 2026.
The diplomatic climate between the UAE and Qatar remains a point of focus for observers. Current market data places the probability of the two nations severing diplomatic ties in 2026 at 5.5%. Despite regional instability, market sentiment appears to maintain a degree of cautious optimism regarding the effectiveness of ongoing diplomatic efforts in the area.
