Goldman Sachs has significantly revised its outlook for the humanoid robotics industry, projecting that 6.5 million units will be produced globally by 2035. The bank estimates the market value will reach $138 billion by that time. This updated forecast reflects a major shift in expectations for physical AI development.
Production targets show rapid growth in the coming years. Analysts expect 75,000 robots to be manufactured in 2026, rising to 890,000 units by 2030. This 2030 figure is more than three times higher than the bank's previous estimate for the end of the decade.
Initial deployment of these robots is expected in warehousing, logistics, and the automotive sector. Companies are currently building the necessary software and hardware infrastructure to support these applications.
Major players are actively preparing for this shift. NVIDIA is developing physical AI tools including Omniverse, Cosmos, Isaac, and Jetson. Meanwhile, Tesla is retooling its Fremont facility to establish specialized production lines for its Optimus humanoid robots.
Despite the growth projections, Goldman Sachs identifies a potential risk to the industry. Development could slow down if developers of advanced AI systems choose to voluntarily limit their work due to safety concerns.
