Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, warns that the Federal Reserve’s new communication strategy under Chair Kevin Warsh may increase market volatility. Since taking office in 2026, Warsh has shortened FOMC statements and reduced the reliance on the dot plot, which previously served as a key guide for interest rate projections.
The shift aims to force markets to focus on economic fundamentals rather than Fed guidance. However, Hatzius notes that this approach makes market reactions to data more unpredictable. Following Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole in August 2026, Goldman Sachs estimated the probability of a September rate hike at 50–60%.
Despite recent market turbulence, Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the next meeting. This projection is based on core inflation data from late August, which is estimated at 0.2%. Hatzius warns that reduced transparency could lead to delayed policy effects and unnecessary financial swings.
For investors, this change requires a shift in strategy, as traditional models based on forward guidance are now less effective. Increased market noise and unpredictable rate expectations may also impact digital assets, as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have shown a growing correlation with macro liquidity conditions.
