Bitcoin faces a major resistance level at $85 000, as long-term holders who acquired roughly 4 million BTC at higher prices may sell to recover their investments. Glassnode reports that a significant portion of this supply was bought between $85 000 and $118 000 during 2025.
The price range of $84 000 to $85 000 has acted as a barrier throughout the year, with Bitcoin closing above this level only five times since January. Analysts suggest that consistent daily closes above $85 000 are required to establish a new support level, while a breakout past $87 500 could signal stronger market demand.
Short-term holders provide support at lower levels, with concentrations of supply near $77 000 and $64 000. Binance order book data shows $42 million in bids between $78 000 and $79 000, while buying interest at the $80 000 mark has decreased to $3.4 million.
Institutional demand via US spot Bitcoin ETFs remains weak, with only $67 million in net inflows recorded over a two-week period. Trading volume for these ETFs dropped to $700 million on October 23, and the asset has dipped below the average ETF cost basis of approximately $81 500.
Market volatility has compressed to roughly 25%, a level rarely seen since 2015. Glassnode notes that such low volatility often precedes significant price movements, with the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision on October 28 identified as a potential catalyst for the next market shift.
