Analyst Benjamin Cowen reports that Bitcoin has closed below the $83,000 support level for two consecutive weeks. The price was $82,042 in the week prior to October 25 and $80,154 on October 25. Cowen suggests this confirms a fake-out and warns of a potential long-term decline similar to the silver market collapse after 2011.
The next target for Bitcoin is the bull market support band, consisting of 20-week and 21-week moving averages between $72,000 and $76,000. Cowen has outlined an 11-step bearish roadmap that includes factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, inflation data, and Treasury yields. A weekly close above $84,000 would invalidate this thesis.
Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments offers a different perspective, noting that Bitcoin's put/call ratio has reached 1.46. Historically, such extremes have indicated that local downside may be capped, though Edwards notes this is not a guarantee. Cowen maintains that his long-term concerns regarding a multi-year decline remain independent of short-term options signals.
