A recent study by Galaxy Research indicates that 69.2% of retail accounts on the Polymarket international platform have failed to break even. The analysis, which examined 2.9 million wallets, found that these traders have collectively incurred losses totaling $338.9 million. The data was sourced from Polymarket’s on-chain settlement records, with curation provided by the oracle network Stork.
To distinguish human traders from automated scripts, Galaxy excluded accounts placing more than 50 orders per active day. This filter removed 125,429 accounts, which were responsible for 80.8% of total order volume and collectively generated $246.8 million in profits. Among the remaining retail participants, the median account shows a loss of approximately $3, while the bottom 1% of traders lost at least $4,804.
The report highlights a correlation between trading losses and user retention. Within 30 days of a loss, 15.2% of accounts ceased activity, compared to 6.1% of those who experienced a win. Galaxy noted that it cannot definitively link multiple wallets to a single individual, meaning some users may have simply migrated to new addresses rather than leaving the platform entirely.
Specialized traders, defined as those focusing on a single topic for over 60% of their activity, showed varying results. Sports traders, who represent 47% of this group, had the lowest profitability rate at 25.1%. In comparison, 41.2% of tech and science specialists remained profitable. Polymarket currently promotes its US exchange through partnerships, including a deal with LeBron James reportedly valued at $15 million annually.
