Forrester Research released a report on November 5, 2026, titled An AI Bubble Burst Is Not Imminent. The firm introduced an AI Bubble Model to track the balance between infrastructure supply and demand absorption. As of Q2 2026, the supply pressure score reached 4.95, while demand absorption stood at 3.44.
The firm attributes the current stability to the financial health of the companies funding the build-out. Nine major firms received a combined financial health score of 79.1 as of November 2, 2026, down from 82.1 on October 29. Approximately 90% of AI infrastructure funding currently comes from large tech companies using their own cash flow.
Forrester suggests that while a total crash is not expected, businesses should prepare for potential supply chain issues and pricing volatility. The firm noted that for AI infrastructure to increase US GDP by 5% by 2035, productivity growth must significantly exceed current estimates of 2 percentage points.
The model was back-tested against previous market events, including the telecom and housing bubbles, as well as tech infrastructure build-outs between 2012 and 2017. Previously, in October 2025, the firm warned that uncertainty regarding return on investment could delay $50 billion in planned AI spending until 2027.
