The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points on September 10, 2026. The new rates, effective September 16, set the deposit facility rate at 2.50%, the main refinancing operations rate at 2.65%, and the marginal lending facility rate at 2.90%.
The ECB forecasts real GDP growth of 0.9% for 2026, with projections of 1.4% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028. Inflation is expected to average 3.0% in 2026, gradually slowing to 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028.
The bank introduced three alternative economic scenarios based on the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East. A severe scenario suggests a potential GDP contraction of 0.4% in 2027 and an inflation spike to 5.4%.
Current economic resilience is supported by robust consumer spending, a strong labor market, and public investment. Energy costs are projected to peak in late 2026 before beginning to decline.
