On September 25, Deribit will process a quarterly settlement involving $15.9 billion in Bitcoin options and $2.1 billion in Ethereum options at 8:00 UTC. This volume accounts for approximately 37% of the total Bitcoin open interest on the platform, which is estimated at $43.5 billion.
Market positioning shows a put/call open interest ratio between 0.69 and 0.76. Of the $9.4 billion in expiring call options, roughly 55% are in the money, with Bitcoin trading between $85,000 and $86,300. The max pain price for this expiry is set between $75,000 and $76,000.
Market makers have been hedging their call option sales by purchasing Bitcoin, which analysts suggest contributed to recent price gains. Once contracts settle, this mechanical buying pressure may cease. Deribit executives Luuk Strijers and Jean-David Péquignot have noted the potential for increased volatility.
The upcoming settlement coincides with the release of U.S. economic data and the expiration of CME Bitcoin futures. This overlap increases the potential for market movement, as institutional traders utilize CME instruments for their positions.
