Barclays reports a growing memory price inversion, with DDR4 contract prices rising 24% over the last three months, outpacing the 20% growth seen in DDR5. As of October 2026, DDR4 contract prices increased by 4% month-over-month.
The pricing structure for supply agreements is shifting. Suppliers are moving away from fixed price ranges toward dynamic market-based pricing. Meanwhile, chip designers are utilizing a de-speccing strategy, reducing memory specifications or capacity to manage supply shortages.
While de-speccing is currently a temporary measure, analysts suggest it could become a long-term trend if supply constraints persist. Barclays expects memory prices to remain high and maintain a strong upward trajectory throughout 2026.
Citigroup forecasts that supply gaps in the DRAM and NAND markets will continue until 2028. According to their data, the DRAM supply-demand deficit will peak at 13.9% in the fourth quarter of 2027, while the NAND shortfall will reach 8.3% in the first quarter of 2028.
