Short-term holders of Bitcoin have maintained profitable positions for nearly a month, a pattern historically linked to the end of bear markets. According to CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, the value of profitable short-term assets reached $168 billion, while assets in loss totaled over $100 billion. To confirm a trend reversal, the asset needs to stabilize above $80,000.
Analyst CW8900 noted that the Spent Output Profit Ratio for long-term holders has risen above 1, signaling a shift from a bearish to a neutral market phase. Long-term holders have been accumulating Bitcoin throughout most of 2026, reaching record supply levels. Unlike previous market peaks, there has been no large-scale profit-taking by this group yet.
Data from analyst Amr Taha shows a divergence in exchange inflows ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. By September 12, retail inflows to Binance reached $10.11 billion, while whale inflows dropped to $4.9 billion as of September 14. Retail inflows currently exceed those of large holders by 106 percent, suggesting smaller investors are taking profits as prices rise.
Market participants are monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision, with a 92.5 percent probability currently assigned to a 25 basis point rate hike. Analysts from Glassnode previously identified the $83,000 to $86,000 range as a significant resistance zone, where long-term holder purchases and the break-even levels for US spot ETFs are concentrated.
