Analyst Gil Luria from D.A. Davidson warned on October 14, 2026, that CoreWeave equity could lose all value if the AI investment cycle slows. Following this assessment, the company's shares dropped by more than 15% in a single day.
The core concern involves a mismatch between borrowing costs and returns. CoreWeave currently borrows capital at approximately 9%, while its return on invested capital is estimated at only 1% to 5%. Total debt for the firm is near $50 billion.
Bond markets reacted to the report as well, with yields rising to 15–16%. Additionally, pricing on credit default swaps suggests a high risk of default over a five-year period. Despite these risks, Luria maintained a Neutral rating on the stock.
CoreWeave, which went public in March 2025 with support from Nvidia, has yet to report a profit. While the company disclosed a revenue backlog of $104.2 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2026, the profitability of these orders remains uncertain.
