Citadel Securities reports that $7 trillion in US options notional value is set to expire this Friday. This event marks the second-largest triple-witching in history, representing approximately 25% of the total US options market open interest.
Triple witching involves the simultaneous expiration of stock options, index options, and futures contracts. Data compiled by Scott Rubner’s team from Bloomberg figures as of September 16 shows the final volume exceeded earlier projections of $6.2 trillion.
Approximately 60% of the expiring volume is expected to settle or roll at the market open. Analysts suggest this could trigger a technical market reset, as dealers will no longer need to hedge the expired positions, potentially reducing market stability.
Citadel Securities maintains a tactically bearish outlook for the end of September. The firm cites both the mechanics of options expiration and historically weak seasonal trends as factors that may influence market liquidity and volatility.
