The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued an advisory on September 22 regarding mention markets, which are yes-or-no contracts based on whether a specific person utters a word during a speech, earnings call, or social media post. The agency suggests these markets are presumptively susceptible to manipulation because the outcome depends on the actions of a single individual.
The Division of Market Oversight (DMO) noted that unlike election or economic data contracts, mention markets involve outcomes that a speaker or their associates can influence. The regulator cited instances such as event attendance or interactions like handshakes. The DMO expects exchanges to address four specific factors when seeking to list such contracts to prove they are not easily manipulated.
The CFTC previously took action against Gabriel Perez, a former White House teleprompter operator. On August 28, he was ordered to pay $172,539.02 for trading presidential mention contracts on Kalshi between December 2025 and February 2026 using advance access to speeches. Perez is also prohibited from trading for three years.
The advisory does not impose a ban, but shifts the burden to exchanges to rebut the presumption of manipulation in their product filings. DMO acting director Duncan Hennes stated that staff may require a heightened showing of compliance for these listings. The guidance does not apply to platforms outside CFTC jurisdiction, such as the international exchange of Polymarket.
