Jason Thomas, head of research at Carlyle Group, warns that current AI infrastructure financing mirrors the mortgage market dynamics seen before the 2008 financial crisis. He notes that rapid capital flow into AI projects is distorting credit markets and driving up interest rates.
AI infrastructure spending currently reaches hundreds of billions of dollars per quarter with an annualized growth rate of 40–60%. Data from Carlyle indicates that hyperscalers have expanded their property, plant, and equipment by 50–200% since late 2023.
The report highlights that high demand for AI capital competes with other sectors, including housing. As of August 2025, the US 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.58%. Additionally, federal deficits are now 1.5 times larger than the 2010–2019 average.
Thomas points to lender psychology, noting that current financing assumes perpetual growth in AI demand. The risk is concentrated, as a small group of hyperscalers drives most of the buildout. Carlyle previously reported a fivefold return from the 2026 sale of Copia Power to EQT.
