The proposed billionaire wealth tax in California, designated as Proposition 40, faces an uncertain future ahead of the 2026 election. According to data from the prediction market Kalshi, the probability of the measure passing is currently estimated at 32%.
The initiative proposes a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of billionaires living in California as of January 1, 2026. Revenue generated from this levy is intended primarily for healthcare funding, with additional allocations planned for education and food assistance programs.
Public opinion remains divided, with recent polls showing support levels between 48% and 52%, while opposition ranges from 38% to 46%. These mixed results are reflected in prediction markets, which currently lean toward a negative outcome for the proposal.
Market sentiment has shown volatility, with the probability of passage fluctuating from 28% to 29% before reaching the current 32%. Observers are closely watching for potential impacts from key political figures, including Governor Gavin Newsom and Secretary of State Shirley Weber.
