JPMorgan Chase economists forecast that global food inflation will reach 5% in the first half of 2027, compared to 2.8% in the same period of 2026. The UN Food Commodities Index has reached its highest point since late 2022.
Market analysts cite several factors for the trend, including the El Nino weather pattern, limited fertilizer supplies, and shipping disruptions. Barclays predicts that crop yields in Europe will be impacted starting in autumn 2026.
Campbell’s plans to raise prices by 4% to 5% for approximately 60% of its products. Meanwhile, diesel prices in the US have exceeded $6 per gallon, increasing transportation costs for food producers.
Fund managers are adjusting portfolios by acquiring inflation-protective assets and reducing exposure to emerging markets. In these regions, food costs account for 30% to 50% of consumer price indices, compared to 15% in developed economies.
On September 17, 2026, the Bank of England maintained interest rates at 3.75%. Experts from Carmignac warn that the market is currently underpricing the risk of a potential food supply shock.
