Bitcoin is currently trading near $82,300, maintaining a 28% gain over the last three months despite recent volatility. Technical analysis of the daily chart reveals a hidden bullish divergence, where the asset established a higher low between September 2 and October 8, while the Relative Strength Index dropped from 65 to 47. This pattern typically indicates that a price dip has reduced momentum without invalidating the broader uptrend.
A significant shift in market behavior is the 96% decline in buying activity from long-term holders. According to Glassnode data, the net position change for these holders fell from a peak of 25,734 BTC on September 20 to 1,051 BTC by October 8. While selling volume has decreased compared to the October 2 peak, the reduced participation from long-term holders creates a reliance on external demand to sustain price growth.
Institutional flows have also faced pressure, with spot ETFs recording outflows of $731 million on October 7 and 8. This contrasts with the August period, when ETFs saw $3.04 billion in inflows over nine days, helping the price rise by 24% despite selling from long-term holders. Market participants are now monitoring key price levels to determine the next trend direction.
The current price floor is established at $80,383, recorded on October 8. Analysts suggest that a daily close above $83,325 is the initial requirement for recovery, while reclaiming the $88,086 level—the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement point—could incentivize renewed interest from holders. Conversely, a drop below $80,383 would invalidate the current divergence and potentially lead to a retest of the $75,041 support level.
